Land Use Assumptions
The TRANSDEF Smart Growth Alternative
sought to redistribute growth in the region within existing
cities and within the footprint of existing development.
Many existing neighborhoods did not receive new
development, so they remain at 2000 census values. The land
use is patterned on the Network of Neighborhoods
Alternative of the Regional Agencies Smart Growth
Strategies/Regional Liveability Footprint Project.
Development is clustered along transit corridors and at
transit nodes.
Over the next 25 years, the increasing
value of land will lead to the densification of arterial
corridors all around the region. Strip malls, underutilized
parking lots, under-developed downtown areas, areas close
to rail transit stops, and passed-over vacant infill land
will redevelop into mixed-use housing with integrated
retail. To enable the Alternative to be comparable with the
MTC Alternatives, the totals for jobs, employed residents,
households and household population are the same as the
Projections 2003 regional totals. The TRANSDEF Alternative
saves about 58,600 acres (91.5 square miles) of greenfield
land that converts to suburban development in the MTC
Alternatives. Densities remain in the same ranges as the
MTC Alternatives. Maps in the DEIR (starting on Appendix
page D-35) indicate the differences in development
intensity between TRANSDEF and MTC Alternatives.
TRANSDEF places the new growth where new
residents or new employees would least negatively affect
the region and existing residents, because they are more
likely to find transit a viable means of getting around. A
main strategy for accommodating new growth is the
redevelopment of low-intensity uses along existing arterial
streets into mixed-use commercial and housing. Muffler
shops and burger joints with large parking lots give way to
townhomes and apartments. The land use for the TRANSDEF
Alternative has not been reviewed by local governments or
by the public.
For purposes of modelling future traffic
conditions, MTC divided up the 9 Bay Area counties into
1454 travel analysis zones (TAZs). Land use assumptions
(employed residents, jobs, residential acres and
commercial/industrial acres) were developed for each of the
zones. These assumptions can be viewed on a spreadsheet.
Also available is a description of the abbreviations for
the spreadsheet column headings.
Many cities and counties are already
implementing Smart Growth. MTC can help by conditioning its
flexible funding decisions on land use that supports its
transportation investment. MTC should develop an incentive
system by which cities qualify for regional funding by
benefitting the region through Smart Growth planning
decisions. MTC can also assist with support for Specific
Plans integrating transportation and land use planning
around transit, as part of the ongoing Transportation for
Livable Communities and Housing Incentive Programs.