Analysis of Modelling
Results
The TRANSDEF Smart Growth Alternative tests a comprehensive
policy of Smart Growth, pricing reform and cost-effective
transit. These three policies work together
synergistically, improving the Region's mobility at a
surprisingly low cost.
The Alternative responds to congestion by reducing
drive-alone demand, rather than expanding roadway capacity.
Instead of the conventional response--widening highways-the
Alternative introduces a series of innovative pricing
reforms that discourage driving by raising its cost. The
downside is minimal: an 18 second increase in the average
travel time per trip. In other words, there is no
significant difference in the time it takes to get from
here to there.
So much money is saved that it becomes possible to fund
most of the region's future needs using existing resources.
The unspent $7 billion in Committed and Track 1 funds could
cover the great majority of the transit capital shortfall
and the streets and roads maintenance shortfall.
By clustering future development in already-urbanized
areas, the Smart Growth Alternative dramatically increases
the number of jobs accessible by transit and significantly
increases jobs accessible by auto. The strong focus on
Smart Growth allows this excellent performance to be
delivered at an infrastructure cost much lower than other
alternatives.
With gasoline prices rising sharply and a widespread
recognition that global supplies of oil will soon be
outstripped by demand, the Smart Growth Alternative begins
the hard work of creating a viable alternative to the
automobile. As longer drive-alone commutes become
unaffordable, the Alternative leaves the region prepared,
with transit in place. A strict requirement of
cost-effectiveness results in the provision of enough
service to make transit a convenient choice.
The Smart Growth Alternative responds to the region's
biggest planning problem: how to provide affordable housing
near jobs. Two-thirds of the new dwelling units built in
the next quarter century under this Alternative are
projected to be multi-family. Not only would this new
housing possibly cost less, it is also far more sustainable
than conventional single-family housing. Good public
transit and walkable neighborhoods enable families to own
fewer or no automobiles, making these units even more
affordable. The increase in transit service in urbanized
areas needed to implement Smart Growth provides significant
benefits to low-income communities, thereby improving the
equity of the distribution of RTP funds.
Smart Growth land use allows urban residents to take many
more of their trips by walking, bicycling or using transit.
By reducing the growth in the amount of driving, the Smart
Growth Alternative reduces environmental impacts such as
air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and energy use.
Nearly 58,600 acres (92 sq. miles) that are converted to
urban uses in the other alternatives remains as open space,
habitat and agricultural lands in the Smart Growth
Alternative.
As can be seen
in this Spreadsheet Analysis of the TRANSDEF Smart Growth
Alternative's performance, the plan performed quite well
in a number of parameters, while costing a great deal
less than the RTP adopted by MTC.
TRANSDEF looks forward to a thorough public discussion of
what was learned from the Smart Growth Alternative and what
can be done to improve the quality of life for Bay Area
residents. We thank MTC staff for their cooperation in the
modelling of the Smart Growth Alternative.
Conclusion
The TRANSDEF
Smart Growth Alternative implements the Network of
Neighborhoods vision developed by the Regional Agencies and
the Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities over a
two year period, based on three carefully researched
planning documents and many public workshops. The
Alternative shifts funds from highways and overly expensive
BART extensions to Rapid Bus and DMU rail service.
The Alternative saves the greenbelt and protects existing
neighborhoods. It develops Smart Growth land use in
downtowns, commercial strips, and around rail transit.
TRANSDEF proposes pricing reforms such as parking cash-out
and the eco-pass to finance transit service, to encourage
carpooling, and to provide incentives to reduce dependency
on automobiles. The package, taken as a whole, is an
exciting and mutually reinforcing plan for moving toward
regional sustainability. It is legal, fundable, and
performs better than the MTC Preferred Alternative.
The TRANSDEF
Team
John Holtzclaw, Sierra Club National Transportation
Committee Chair
Sherman Lewis, Professor Emeritus, CSU Hayward
and Former BART Director
Richard Mlynarik, RAFT
David Schonbrunn, TRANSDEF President